We are entering the "silly season." The silly season is not my name for it, but I can't rememeber which political analyst called June through November of an election year the "silly season." Anyway, we are there.
Yesterday, Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot at National Review Online gave voters a preview of what to expect during the silly season. Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Democrat Gov. Martin O'Malley leading Republican Robert Ehrlich by 3 percentage points. The poll's sample splits 60 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 12 percent independents.
Anytime you see the results of a poll, you need to look at who took the poll and what their polling sample was. The most reliable polls are the ones of registered voters only, the most unreliable polls are the ones taken during the day when most people are out working. In this case, Mr. Geraghty points out that in the 2008 elections, CNN's exit poll showed a Maryland electorate that consisted of 51 percent self-identified Democrats, 28 percent Republicans, and 21 percent of independents. The sample used in the poll that shows Governor O'Malley leading Robert Ehrlich assumes that 16 percent of the independents who voted in 2008 have become Democrats. That is contrary to every other poll currently being reported. Indications are that independents are moving away from the Democrat party.
What this shows is that you can make a poll say anything you want it to by controlling the people you poll. By adding more Democrats to the polling sample, the pollsters were able to show that Governor O'Malley was leading. I don't know if polls make an impact on voters, but as voters, all of us need to be aware that polls can be manipulated.
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