This story is based on two articles, the first from The Daily Beast on July 7, 2010, the other from The Hill today.
President Obama has been President for about a year and a half now. A lot of the promises and pledges he made in the campaign and in the past year have been broken, and the economy has not yet turned a corner--unemployment is still around 10 per cent. It is too early to speculate on what the next two years will bring, but there are a few scenarios.
Even leading Democrats are saying that the Republicans will probably win the House of Representatives back in November. There is not a lot a chatter about what may happen in the Senate. The President's approval rating is lower than his disapproval rating. That is not good. Remember, however, that we are dealing with a Chicago politician. There is a scenario under which President Obama could easily be reelected in 2012, and all of us need to be aware of this in order to prevent his reelection.
If Congress turns over to the Republicans in November, they will not take office until January. If Congress does not extend the Bush tax cuts and if Congress uses its lame duck session to pass new taxes, cap and trade, etc., the economy will nose dive in January. At this point, since the Republicans are in charge of Congress, it will be easy to blame them for the downturn (unless the voters are paying attention). This would pave the way for an Obama reelection.
However, life is never that simple. The Hill reported today that Evan Bayh has stated that he agrees with House Minority Whip Eric Cantor's (R-Va.) statements that tax increases would hurt whatever economic recovery we are currently seeing. There are a few Democrats asking party leaders to extend the Bush tax cuts in order to help the economy recover. Evan Bayh has already announced his retirement from the Senate. He is in a position to challenge President Obama from the right in a Democrat primary in 2012.
The Daily Beast reported on the Aspen Ideas Festival, where many people who supported President Obama in his bid for President expressed second thoughts. One of the quotes from that article:
""The real problem we have," Mort Zuckerman said, "are some of the worst economic policies in place today that, in my judgment, go directly against the long-term interests of this country.""
Another quote:
"The curse of longterm unemployment is that if you pay people to do nothing, they'll find themselves doing nothing for very long periods of time," Ferguson said. "Long-term unemployment is at an all-time high in the United States, and it is a direct consequence of a misconceived public policy."
These are two examples of the disillusionment with President Obama now that he has been in office for a year and a half. Keep in mind that many of the people at this Festival had supported Bill and Hillary Clinton in the past.
The statement made by Evan Bayh and the statements from the Aspen Ideas Festival are interesting in that they may portent a Democrat presidential primary in 2012. I suspect someone will challenge President Obama from the left, but I also suspect either Evan Bayh or Hillary Clinton will challenge him from the right.
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